Phil Foden – Worth a Look?

Supplied by FPL_MFDOOM

Foden seems to be the hot name over the last few days following his stellar 7-pt performance against LIV and it seems that many of us are considering risking Pep roulette again for MCI’s tasty fixture run.

It’s a classic risk vs. reward situation so I decided to dig into it a bit … my findings were quite interesting.

5 Salah 6.75

4 Jota 6.95

3 Gundo 6.96

2 Bruno 7.07

drumroll please …

1 Foden 7.53

On a per-start basis, Phil Foden (17 starts) is also top of the list for the 2020/21 season amongst mids:

5 Son 6.31

4 Gundo 6.48

3 Lingard 6.62

2 Bruno 6.77

1 Foden 6.82

๐…๐จ๐๐ž๐ง ๐ฏ๐ฌ. ๐‹๐ˆ๐• :

1 goal

2 Shots on Target

xG 0.43, xA 0.08 on understat

xG 0.5, xA 0.1 on FBREF

1 Big Chance missed (the goal he scored had an xG of 0.06 whereas his 20th min chance after the beautiful run and pass from Silva had a xG of 0.36 – kudos to Allison on that one)

Eye test (IMO) – Overall, Foden looked great and was very dangerous for City playing in an advanced left wing position.

Foden Heatmap for the last two Gameweeks curtesy of the Fantasy Football Scout Members area

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ.

Man City’s next 3 fixtures look very good overall with a tougher Brighton away fixture flanked by two TASTY Home fixtures – BUR, bha, CRY

Fact: BUR and CRY are owners of the worst xGC and GC in AWAY games this year.

BUR – 2.2 xGC, 2.33 GC per game

CRY – 2.0 xGC, 2.67 GC per game

Meanwhile, Man City have the second best HOME xG90 at 2.3 (Liverpool in 1st of course) and have scored 10 goals in 3 home matches, tops in the Premier League.

๐‘๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐ฏ๐ฌ. ๐‘๐ž๐ฐ๐š๐ซ๐

As pointed out by @FPL_Banger, Foden’s minutes in the PL from GW20 on last year are a little scary to behold …

… but then @FplSigurd correctly points out that MCI had locked up the league early last season and Foden played some heavy minutes in the Champions League. So it might not be so bad …

I also found this clip interesting re: who could be dropped between Grealish and Foden. It’s all guesswork but that’s half the fun, isn’t it? (or am I a glutton for punishment?)

The key thing here is obviously – WILL FODEN START?!

If Foden does start, the stats from the 20/21 season and underlying stats indicate he could be a great pick and an explosive differential (TSB = 1.8%). The BUR and CRY games are particularly mouthwatering.

Two caveats if you go this route:

  1. have at least 1 or 2 playing options on your bench

2. If you don’t have the stomach for Pep roulette, I would forget everything written in this thread and move on

๐’๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ

  • Foden had elite per start & per 90 #s last yr
  • Looked great vs. LIV & has played 176′ over last 2 PL games after returning from inj
  • BUR & CRY @ home are as good as it gets fixture-wise
  • Of course, Pep roulette is a BIG risk

Personally, I am considering it… I could bring Foden in for the 3 game stretch (BUR, bha, CRY) and if it doesn’t work out, I can shift to Bryan Mbeumo for ex. whose fixtures turn in GW10 and look good until GW18-19 (bha, MCI).

I know that baking in transfers is never ideal but for a short 3-week punt on a player of Foden’s skill level, I am taking the @lateriser12 approach and going with my gut.

If he gets minutes consistently, I would love to keep him long-term but I have a plan to jump ship if need be. It’s a move that offers plenty of reward with some obvious risk. At a price tag of 7.9 M, I think it’s reasonable.

Agree? Disagree? Happy to hear your opinions! Either way, hope you enjoyed my mini “research project” and this thread !!

Many Thanks to FPL_MFDOOM for this article thread

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