Top three picks for FPL Gameweek 4
Every week David Munday will be sharing his top three picks for the Gameweek with us. Ahead of the first deadline of the season, David shares his top three picks for FPL Gameweek 4.
Having tipped Jack Harrison (£6.0m) and Rodrigo (£6.3m) in my Gameweek 2 and Gameweek 3 articles. I’m going to leave them out this week. Not because I think they’re bad options, far from it, but simply to stop you reading their names everywhere.
As you can guess from my previous articles this season, I think they are excellent assets to consider moving forward. I’m hoping to sign one of them myself. But, in order to give you some variation in the content you consume for Gameweek 4, here are some others to look at.
Harry Kane (£11.4m) is slowly looking like one of the most appealing expensive assets. He has now found the net in back-to-back matches, and is among the top-six highest-scoring forwards. This is despite a mass loss of public opinion after the first Gameweek.
It’s Kane’s fixtures that appeal to me the most. Up next is a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded more shots, more shots in the box and more shots on target than any other side over the first three matches. Yes, it’s at the City Ground, where Forest kept a clean sheet in Gameweek 2, but West Ham still registered an expected goals (xG) score of 2.26 in that game.
Then it’s the Hammers for Kane in Gameweek 5, whose defence has left a lot to be desired thus far. In fact, Forest are the only team with a higher expected goals conceded (xGC) after the first three Gameweeks. Then, in Gameweek 6, Spurs face newly-promoted Fulham, who have conceded two goals in two of their first three matches back in the bigtime.
Kane’s statistics haven’t been setting the world on fire just yet, although there are certainly sparks. Thus far, just five players have produced more shots on target than him, the same number afforded more big chances too. Then, only two have created more chances too. With these favourable fixtures coming up, we should see a bump in those figures, which should mean big points for Kane and put him firmly in the captaincy conversation for several weeks to come.
It feels somewhat disingenuous to include Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) in this week’s article. Well, amid some disgruntled reactions to his hat-trick of blanks thus far in 2022/23, I am happy to tell you that Gameweek 4 could see him finally deliver on his price point.
Firstly, Liverpool’s wait for a first clean sheet of the season could come to an end at Anfield on Saturday afternoon. After the first three rounds, Bournemouth have registered the Premier League’s lowest totals for shots, shots in the box, shots on target and xG.
Meanwhile, no defender has created more chances or fashioned more big chances in the first three Gameweeks than Alexander-Arnold. His expected goal involvement (xGI) is also the highest among all defenders thus far and, knowing his pedigree, and the talent of those around him, he is unlikely to underperform against that for too long. With Newcastle (home), Everton (away) and Wolves (home) on the horizon too, I think those who lose faith in Alexander-Arnold ahead of Gameweek 4 could be punished. That said, I still think there is some risk in doubling-up on this Liverpool defence. One of either Alexander-Arnold or Andrew Robertson (£6.9m) should do for now.
It might be one Gameweek early but, given last week’s success with the Rodrigo pick, I’ll take a chance again. Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) appears to be in excellent form at the start of this season, already 20 per cent of the way to his goal tally from last season.
The Crystal Palace man appears to have put much of the past behind him and looks more focussed than ever before. Thankfully for Fantasy managers, that appears to be borne out in the statistics thus far. After three matches, he is joint-third in the Premier League for big chances and shares the same rank among all players for shots on target. On the whole attacking returns look sustainable based on those numbers.
It is, of course, Manchester City up next, but Palace have a decent track record against Pep Guardiola’s men. Zaha is likely to be in demand between Gameweeks 5 and 8, when the Eagles rank fourth for attacking difficulty on the Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker with fixtures against Brentford (home), Newcastle (away), Manchester United (home) and Brighton (away). Jumping on Zaha early could help you to some much-needed differential points and price rises too.