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Should FPL managers keep Wout Weghorst?

With two returns from his last three matches, Burnley forward Wout Weghorst has given a glimmer of hope to his FPL owners.

FPL managers love the idea of Wout Weghorst. A traditional target man forward in a team that plays to his strengths, with Premier League survival to play for. So when he scored his first goal in Gameweek 26, the masses pounced onto him for Double Gameweek 27. But he blanked twice.

Shortly after, a home clash with Everton in another Double Gameweek? That tempted many. Only to see him fail both times again. Everything in between was also a blank. Therefore, in the build-up to yet another Double Gameweek for the Clarets, FPL managers remembered the past and followed the clues. Such as being hauled off after 55 minutes at Norwich – perhaps Weghorst’s place was in danger.

He lost owners for Double Gameweek 33 and, naturally, proceeded to score at West Ham. Furthermore, Sunday afternoon brought an assist for Matej Vydra’s winner against Wolves. Just as owners had given up all hope, Weghorst has made himself an option again.

Stats since Dyche sacking

Sean Dyche surprisingly lost his job two weeks ago, two days before Weghorst netted at West Ham.

Thanks to the statistics of the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area, we can see that his average position is pretty much the same. Yet, when comparing the most recent three matches with the seven beforehand, things have changed.

Firstly, he totals more goal attempts in these three than all of the previous seven combined. Also, Weghorst is now taking fewer minutes per shot, per chance created and per expected goal involvement (xGI). He’s playing in a more attacking team that knows they have to score goals to stay up. In fact, only five teams have had more shots in their last four matches than Burnley, reversing a season-long scarcity.

Remaining fixtures

Suddenly, Burnley has the momentum to go alongside their promising final fixtures. Outside of the bottom three, there’s now a different pressure on them to stave off the threat of Everton. They’ll be happy to face Watford next, with two meetings against Aston Villa before their final day hosting of Newcastle.

Owners of Weghorst have sat through his repeated blanks and may as well commit all the way, in hopes of seeing him celebrate a dramatic final day survival in front of a euphoric Bob Lord Stand.

Alternative options to Weghorst

A few cheaper forwards have recently started to emerge – names like Teemu Pukki, Eddie Nketiah and Jean-Philippe Mateta. The latter’s starts are unpredictable, although Nketiah may continue to keep the departing Alexandre Lacazette out of Arsenal’s line-up.

Those purchasing Emmanuel Dennis are doing so purely based on fixtures, rather than any signs of life from Watford. Elsewhere, Ivan Toney has nice fixtures but without a Double Gameweek, unlike Ollie Watkins and Richarlison. These two have consecutive doubles to come.

So, with three places for forwards, the Burnley turnaround makes Weghorst worth keeping. It’s difficult enough filling the other two spots!

Fantasy Football Community