Looking ahead to Gameweek 11

Replicated from a Twitter thread from FPL Sonaldo available here.

ARSENAL

Ramsdale unleashed his inner Mendy mode against Leicester with a tremendous performance. His free kick save vs Maddison comes to mind as Schmeichel said it was the “best save I’ve seen for years.”

In fact, the follow up save from Evans was even more impressive as Evan’s shot had an xG of 0.48.

To put it into context, a penalty xG is usually 0.75 and most big chances xG is 0.2. Over the last 6 games, he is 3rd for saves (same as Martinez), 2nd for baseline BPS, with 40% of shots from inside the box.

Martinez last season had 60% of.shots from inside the box. Small sample size, however 2nd in DEF FDR. Ramsdale also made some scintillating passes through the middle and to the halfway line (Ederson like) which eased the pressure off defenders.

A big improvement in his game. Moving forward he is the £4.5m goalkeeper to go with (coin flip with Sanchez). I think fixtures will be key.

ESR has had 2 goals and 1 assist in his last two games and is a solid enabler moving forward at his price point. Traditionally, ESR gets the no 10 role and is very restricted, but Arteta has given him positional freedom on the left flank.

This has made him a reborn player since Arsenal shifted to the 4-2-2-2. I learn so much from @EricLaurie and his graphic below (3rd image) shows the positional attacking freedom for dual 10’s.

As a right footed player, ESR can choose to operate on the left or pop up in the center. His goals may seem “flukey” but regardless he is going to continue being in these dangerous spaces.

A bargain at his price point with the form Arsenal is in atm. Aubamayeng is one that interests me as well. Often under the radar, he is the talisman, pen taker, set pieces and no. 9. Randomness will always favor a player like Auba and while he isn’t the best of finishers, Arsenals best attacking plays revolve around him being involved. Certainly, a solid option as well.

VARDY

Vardy is a tricky one. His fixtures are okay till GW 18 and has Leeds next. Below is a example of the big chances he usually buries. An open header vs Arsenal. Simply put, Vardy gets a big chance every game, so it’s all about his finishing form. Keep for Leeds

MAN CITY

Against Brighton, Pep utilized a lot of flank play. Foden played the false 9 role, but unlike the usual false 9, nobody ran behind or beyond him. Instead the mids (B. Silva) stretched wide, hugging the touchline and the fullbacks went narrow to cover the centre the result is the mids are getting the points at the moment.

With City the “abundance” theory comes to mind because of how spread the returns are, our decision could be based on how big the size of the pie is. However, against CP, City was sluggish allowing an early goal. Sam Lee rote a great (The Athletic) article on how City punish teams with a early good start, but struggle and come blank when chasing games. Mainly due to them being forced into crosses. *Something to consider*

https://theathletic.com/2923912/2021/10/31/manchester-city-either-rout-teams-or-struggle-to-create-anything-at-all-why/

With Foden, I would certainly keep for United as it presents a great matchup for him. United atm can’t deal with free role players as their formation is too rigid. They are unable to adapt defensively and Varane is also now injured. This could be a big haul for Foden.

BRENTFORD

Brentford loss was a one off. Mbuemo should restore order and his absence has forced Toney to do a lot of extra work (Offensively and Defensively). It has had a cascading effect all the way down to the midfield and defense. Brentford tactics revolve aroundmaximizing chances for Toney. Not so obvious in open play, but very apparent on attacking throw ins and corners.

Look out for Canos and Jenson if Mbeumo doesn’t return soon. One off game. Easy hold for me.

BURNLEY

Cornet is the in form OOP attacker at the moment and this season’s Dwight McNeil. He has had 3 goals in the last two games with an xG of 0.73. With a solid set of fixtures from gw 12 onwards, certainly one to consider. A perfect mix of form and fixtures.

With that being said, Wood is always the safer option because he is just more reliable. The fulcrum, the talisman, the main guy. Randomness does favor him, but regardless of randomness, their plan A always revolves around Chris Wood.

CHELSEA

Chilwell and James are the hot commodities to own at the moment. For Azpi owners, I don’t think it’s a sideways move to go to one of Ben or Reece. This is because Tuchel came out and said “. it is not really a full-back position, more a midfield position.

I would not call them defenders. they are more free to attack and have a shorter way to the opponents box than as full-backs. It is necessary that they are included and we bring them to the box at the end of our attacks to increase the goal threat.” He even goes on to joke that Werner and Lukaku may have to play on the wings to get goals. It’s promising as a Reece owner and I see the merits of a double up here. Not only are the attacking returns promising, @FPL_Salah shows that Chelsea are above everyone in CS % for GW11.

The Rudiger question is a tough one. He is the most reliable starter and has been in world class form in 2021. In 2021 he has played 41 games, 28 clean sheets and only 16 allowed goals. Insane. His heat map vs Norwich was amazing. Basically a left wingback. No need to sell in my opinion.

WEST HAM

In the last 5 gw, West Ham have been on 4 wins and 1 draw and in the PL top 4. The difference this year is the squad depth. They are a force to be reckon with. Granted, they have not yet faced a top side. They do have some tough fixtures coming up and what to do with Antonio is a dilemma. By GW 16 we will definitely want him in our teams. This is a classic form vs fixtures debate. As @TedTalksFPL highlights below Antonio is fixture proof. It could be dangerous to move him on especially with his price value.

@FPLBrunoo also highlights the next 6 opponents for Antonio in terms of Most Chances Conceded down the Center is intriguingly decent. 4 of the next 6 GWs are good matchups for Antonio. The fixtures thus do not validate taking the risk of selling him.

*Watch out for his thread*

Personally, this depends on the type of manager you are. I see an opportunity here to attack the fixtures with other assets. Benhrama is still getting chances, but his output has dropped significantly. A sell for me.

Ben Johnson has had 7, 6, and 8 pts in his last 3 starts and could be a solid budget option. But with Coufal coming back, the same thing happened last season, where he ended up going right back to the bench. Bowen also seems a solid option with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games. But I would stay away due to the fixtures.

GALLAGHER

Gallagher functions way better without Milivojevic because he has more freedom and a larger share of Palace set pieces. However, his output is difficult to predict. The good thing is his fixtures are getting better so a solid enabler in the midfield slot!

WOLVES

Wolves essentially play a high risk, high reward type football under Lage. The victory vs Everton was a classic win courtesy of their high press. This creates a lot of randomness and elevates Jimenez as an asset. Evident in the second goal vs Everton off a mistake.

In the last 5 gws Wolves are top of the league with 4W and 1D. Jimenez & Hwang are presenting themselves as solid options moving forward as Hwang was inches from another goal as well. Wolves Defense: Huge no. Unless you want Nouri who is on corners and advanced positioning.

Conte & Spurs

If I go down this rabbit hole, it will be another 25+ tweets so I will save this one for possibly after this week during the IB with more sample size. I have Kane and I will get Son. 99% emotional move? Yes

But Conte coaching Son is everything to me.

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