How many premiums should I own in FPL?

We touch upon one of the hottest topics in the community at the moment and answer a question many fantasy managers are asking themselves, how many premiums should I own in FPL? We will answer this with the help of the Fantasy Football Scout members area.

Premiums are expensive assets in FPL. Fitting them in can be a massive issue for fantasy managers, especially when there are so many other nicely priced and in-form players in the game to choose from. So, how many premiums should I own in FPL?

Fixtures

We can see that Aston Villa, West Ham, Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Newcastle rank amongst the top five teams with the easiest fixtures. We can also see that Chelsea, Fulham, Luton, Manchester City and Manchester United rank amongst the bottom five teams with the toughest fixtures.

Fixtures are a really important factor when considering how many premiums we should have in our teams. Premiums with a tougher schedule could have less potential compared to those with easier fixtures. However, some premiums are considered fixture proof so it could be worth considering other factors.

The premiums

Here we take a look at the premiums under question, Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah. Both players are leading the debate over one or two premiums within the community so lets take a look at their recent team and personal form.

Erling Haaland – £14m

It should come as no surprise to many that Manchester City started the campaign very well. They also maintained some of the best offensive stats in the league in their early matches. To highlight their recent form, in terms of attacking data in the last four Gameweeks they rank:

Joint sixth for goals (six)
Seventh for attempts on goal (63)
Joint sixth for shots in the box (37)
Fifth for big chances total (12)
Ninth for expected goals (6.31)

Manchester City are clearly struggling to maintain their usual high standards in terms of offensive data. With tough fixtures approaching we could see that drop even more.

Manchester City look out of sorts lately and Erling Haaland is one of the reasons for that. The Norwegian was fantastic at the start of the season but similar to his side things seem to be dipping. Haaland sustained the best attacking stats amongst all players in the league for some time but in the last four Gameweeks sits:

Joint third for goals (two)
Joint fifth for total attempts (12)
Outside the top 40 players for FPL points (16)

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool also started the season well and they are now coming into an easier set of fixtures which could see their performances improve even more. More recently, in the last four Gameweeks the Reds rank:

Joint third for goals scored (nine)
Joint fifth for shots in the box (44)
Joint second for big chances total (15)
Second best for expected goals scored (9.21)

Liverpool’s recent attacking data is improving when compared to the early part of their campaign. One player who has been benefitting from that is Mohamed Salah. In the same period amongst all players in the game he ranks:

Joint second for goals scored (three)
Joint fifth for total attempts (12)
Joint fifth for shots in the box (10)
Joint first for big chances created (five)

Captaincy

Premium players are usually the best players to captain due to their consistency and reliability. Because of this whether or not you are going to captain a premium player or not can a be a huge contributing factor on whether to own one or two of them.

We can see Liverpool’ and Manchester City’ next six fixtures. Deciding who to captain in which Gameweek could come down to:

Gameweek 9 – ?
Gameweek 10 – ?
Gameweek 11 – ?
Gameweek 12 – ?
Gameweek 13 – ?
Gameweek 14 – Salah

The uncertainty around which player to captain in the next five Gameweeks could be enough to go with one and one alone.

The Son Heung-min factor

Tottenham are one of the most in-form teams in the league and in fact sit first in the table because of their impressive frontline. They are sustaining some of the best underlying offensive data in the league and one player influencing that is Son Heung-min (£9.5m).

Not only is Son classified as a midfielder who plays in a forwards role but he also takes his sides penalties. He has also picked up more points than both Haaland and Salah in the last five Gameweeks.

Continuing with our captaincy discussion it is also worth considering Son. When including Son into the captaincy chat it could come down to the following over the next several Gameweeks:

Gameweek 9 – ?
Gameweek 10 – ?
Gameweek 11 – Salah or Haaland
Gameweek 12 – Son
Gameweek 13 – Son
Gameweek 14 – Salah

The above shows that with the addition of Son captaincy could be much easier to navigate over the next several weeks.

Other great assets

Having both Haaland and Salah can be extremely limiting in terms of budget and could restrict having top performing players in our teams like:

Ollie Watkins (£8.1m)
Bukayo Saka (£8.6m)
Kieran Trippier (£6.8m)
Son Heung-min
James Maddison (£8.1m)

It could also limit plans to bring in the likes of the following when fixtures and potentially form improve:

Luis Diaz (£7.5m)
Darwin Nunez (£7.4m)
Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.9m)
Marcus Rashford (£8.8m)
Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m)
Jarrod Bowen (£7.3m)

How many premiums should I own?

Based on the fixtures, team and player form, Son Heung-min, captaincy and budget limitations it could be wise to opt for just one premium for the period ahead. For those that still want two premiums players they may have to rely on the cheap budget players to help enable their teams moving forward of which their form may not be sustainable.