Should We Stick with Nicolas Jackson?

Should we stick with Nicolas Jackson? We try to answer this ahead of the new deadline. To do this we head over to the Fantasy Football Scout members area, to utilise some of its fantastic tools, including the fixture ticker and underlying stats.

The community has been frustrated with the Chelsea star for some time now. With four consecutive blanks in his last four league matches, managers are losing patience. Factoring in underlying data, team form, fixtures and more, should we stick with Nicolas Jackson?

Recent Form

Below we can see both Chelsea’ and Nicolas Jackson’ form in the previous eight league games.

The Blues won all of their matches between Gameweek 13-16, but then failed to win any of their games between Gameweek 17-20.

What is interesting, is that Jackson’ form followed that same pattern – returning in two of his matches between Gameweek 13-16, but then blanking in every one of his games between Gameweek 17-20.

Based on that, we can see that Chelsea’ form is having a negative affect on Jackson’ output, or Jackson’ form is having a negative effect on his sides form.

Will Fixtures Bring Form?

Fixture difficulty plays a major role when it comes to buying, selling or keeping any asset.

Below we can see the Fantasy Football Scout fixture ticker has ordered all 20 teams for the next six Gameweeks in regards to fixture difficulty.

We can see that Chelsea rank 11th, which suggests that 10 other sides have easier fixtures than the Blues.

The fixtures are of course mixed for Chelsea. But, we have to take into account that they come up against both Bournemouth and then Wolves in their next two matches. Both sides have been extremely ropey defensively this season, so we could see Chelsea have huge attacking potential against them.

Is He Still Producing Good Stats?

Overall, Jackson has produced some very exciting underlying attacking statistics.

We can see that, when compared to every other player this season, he ranks fifth best for total attempts on goal, fifth best for total big chances, and fifth best for non-penalty expected goal involvement.

His numbers improve slightly when comparing him directly with every other forward. In fact, as we can see, Jackson rises to third best for total shots in the box, fourth best for total big chances and third best for total non-penalty expected goal involvement.

As well as his overall data, it would be unwise to ignore his recent stats.

In the last six Gameweeks, Jackson sits second best for total attempts in the box, outside the top 10 for big chances total, and fifth for non-penalty expected goal involvement.

Recent data may be less convincing for Jackson, but he is still getting into great positions. Below is evidence that Jackson has underperformed on that data though. In his last six Gameweeks, when compared to every other forward, he ranks the worst for expected goal involvement delta.

Emergence Of Other Options

We also have to take into account alternative options emerging.

Chris Wood (£6.8m) – Nottingham Forest sit third in the league due to their fantastic form. Leading the attack is Wood, who not only costs £1.3m less than Jackson, but is also in better form and takes penalties. The only issue with Wood is that he faces Liverpool next, but then great fixtures immediately after that.

Jean Philippe Mateta (£7.2m) – As we can see with the fixture ticker above, Crystal Palace arguably have a better upcoming schedule than any other side. Mateta has been out of sorts this season, but he goes into the period mentioned, off the back of scoring a goal in his recent game, taking penalties and coming in £0.9m cheaper than Jackson. One negative when it comes to the Frenchman, is that he is yet to show consistency this season.

Raul Jimenez (£5.6m) – Another striker who could catch the eye is Raul Jimenez. The Mexican is priced a huge £2.5m cheaper than Jackson, has good fixtures ahead, and has scored in each of his previous two games. It isn’t all smooth sailing with Jimenez though, especially with teammate Rodrigo Muniz waiting to eat into his gametime, something that happens on a regular basis.

Conclusion

It has been a very frustrating several weeks for Jackson owners. His fixtures have been arguably good, but that hasn’t stopped him from blanking. Although producing great statistics overall this season at first glance, he has underperformed on that data. His price is also a major issue, especially when taking into account the in-form and considerably cheaper options elsewhere.

Taking most of the above into account, selling Jackson, for those with the flexibility of transfers to do so, could be a good move.

However, for managers with a little more patience, waiting could also be a good option. Jackson faces Bournemouth and Wolves next which could see him return. We have also highlighted that, Chris Wood, arguably one of his best replacements, faces Liverpool next. So, managers aiming to bring Wood in, could wait one more week to make the move.