Should FPL managers keep or sell Mbeumo?
On the verge of overtaking Cole Palmer (£10.8m) as this season’s second-highest FPL scorer, some managers are still contemplating a Bryan Mbeumo (£8.1m) sale.
Some reasons make sense but, on the other hand, he’s on penalties and a reliable source of points.
SEASON SO FAR
A scorer of nine goals in his previous two Premier League campaigns, this time Mbeumo reached that by Gameweek 15. Saturday’s assist at Bournemouth now puts him on 21 attacking returns, bettered by just Mohamed Salah (£13.7m), Erling Haaland (£14.8m), Alexander Isak (£9.3m) and Palmer.
Similarly, those are the only four with a higher expected goal involvement (xGI, 15.88) than the Cameroon international.
He had a low five-match spell of accumulating merely 0.76 xGI between Gameweeks 10 and 14 but has never blanked more than three times in a row. That’s why Mbeumo is one of FPL’s most trusted assets.
REASONS TO KEEP
Part of this is his penalty-taking duties, adding a fixture-proof quality. The 25-year-old has converted from the spot four times which, combined with his chunk of set-pieces, showcases his multiple routes to points.
His great understanding with Yoane Wissa (£6.5m) has helped Brentford rank joint-sixth for shots on target (138). Mbeumo has made the second-most crosses (150) throughout the league and has set up a respectable 13 big chances.
Furthermore, we know he won’t get rotated. He’s started all 29 league games, completed 26 of them and lasted at least 86 minutes each time.
REASONS TO SELL
The problem is that his fixture-proof ability will be tested with these next five encounters. All are against current top seven sides, with all but one rated four on the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
While it can be pointed out that he bagged 34 points – an average of 6.8 – in the reverse meetings, the FPL community’s popular Bench Boost options are Gameweeks 32 and 33. He’ll be against Arsenal and Brighton.
Uncertainty over the status of Gameweek 34’s trip to Nottingham Forest lingers. It may form a passable Double Gameweek 33 but it could also stay in its place.
And in a return to individual statistics, he’s one of the biggest expected goals (xG) overachievers, with +6.04 so far. Though Mbeumo is ninth for shots on target (31), he’s nowhere near the top for attempts (62), box shots (45) or big chances (16).
Cheaper colleague Wissa has more in all three categories. With few appealing forwards out there, maybe he’s a better route into the Bees, one that opens up a midfield spot for someone else.
FPL MBEUMO ALTERNATIVES
That other player could perhaps be Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m), an out-of-position midfielder at home to Southampton in Gameweek 33. In fact, that could also become a double.
Once back from suspension in Gameweek 31, Anthony Gordon (£7.4m) has a highly appealing fixture run, as seen on Fantasy Football Scout’s Season Ticker. Or, to raise extra millions, Newcastle team-mate Jacob Murphy (£5.0m), possibly Justin Kluivert (£6.2m) or Ismaila Sarr (£5.6m) too.
Sticking with Crystal Palace – a side that could soon get consecutive Double Gameweeks – shot machine Eberechi Eze (£6.7m) has Southampton first. A shout-out also belongs to Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m), with four goals in nine.
Mbeumo guarantees minutes, takes penalties and provides a steady stream of attacking returns to FPL managers. But we’re at the risk-taking part of this season, where other names look great too.
