Is it time to sell Alexander-Arnold in FPL?
Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) has started well, blanking only twice to be the top-scoring Fantasy Premier League (FPL) defender. Yet there are still reasons to sell.
He’s part of a stellar backline that has kept five clean sheets in the opening seven matches, also grabbing six bonus points.
And we know all about his pedigree. In each of the five seasons between 2018/19 and 2022/23, he ended with at least 156 points – a couple went beyond 200 – and a combined 70 attacking returns.
ATTACKING OUTPUT
Initially, seeing Alexander-Arnold on no goals and just one assist will have owners concerned about the game’s most expensive defender. His high price is based on an elite record of contributing further upfield. These clean sheets are the only thing protecting him from mass sales.
Using data from Fantasy Football Scout’s Members Area, let’s compare the 26-year-old’s first seven appearances in recent campaigns.
| 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2022/23 | 2021/22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPL points | 41 | 24 | 24 | 51 |
| Attacking returns | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Chances created (CC) | 16 | 10 | 13 | 25 |
| Mins per CC | 36.2 | 51.8 | 43.6 | 24.2 |
| Big chances created (BCC) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Crosses | 34 | 47 | 65 | 64 |
| Goal attempts | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Mins per attempt | 72.4 | 57.6 | 51.5 | 43.1 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| Expected assists (xA) | 2.54 | 0.70 | 1.63 | 3.41 |
| Expected goal involvement (xGI) | 2.88 | 1.08 | 2.06 | 4.05 |
We can see that Trent is doing better than the previous two seasons for points, creativity and xGI but less so when it comes to goal threat. In fact, his current 2.88 xGI is way ahead of the next-best defender’s 1.68.
Only midfield trio Mohamed Salah (£12.7m), Cole Palmer (£10.8m) and Dwight McNeil (£5.7m) have set up more big chances (five). It’s a number that compares well with his recent years but interestingly, they’re not really coming from crosses anymore. He has a different role under Arne Slot.
LIVERPOOL’S DEFENCE
Meanwhile, a slight surprise has been the strength of Liverpool’s defence. They’ve conceded twice when next-best Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have let in six goals.
Nobody has allowed fewer shots inside the box (37) or accumulated a smaller expected goals conceded (xGC) tally (5.17). Of course, this being far more than 2.00 still suggests severe overachievement.
UPCOMING FIXTURES
Combine that with a tough-looking schedule, spread over several competitions, and Alexander-Arnold owners may be acknowledging that FPL is about looking forward and not backwards.
He’s started strongly but – more importantly – will he continue strongly?
OTHER NEEDS
Although usually a fixture-proof player, those wanting to finance an extra high-priced attacker will always, inevitably, ponder a Trent downgrade. After all, it’s an easy way to raise a couple of million and secure someone like Palmer or Saka.
Managers wanting rid of Luis Diaz (£8.1m) or Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) could get to these with a bit more money. So seeing the right-back have a lower goal threat and lesser chance of imminent successful shut-outs makes it feel like a reasonable time to jump off.
However, those not seeking another premium and coping fine without Erling Haaland (£15.4m) probably have no reason to sell arguably FPL’s best defender.
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