Is FPL Gameweek 38 really a historic goal-fest?
FPL Gameweek 38 is on the horizon! The received wisdom has it that each season’s final day of Premier League action is a frenzy of attacking football.
As we enter FPL Gameweek 38 of 2024/25, let’s see if Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are right to expect a goal-fest.
If so, some exciting differential punts are about to look even more attractive.
But are these high-scoring climaxes just a myth?
Let’s study the goals and clean sheets of the last 14 season-enders, which is as far back as the data goes in our Premium Members Area
FINAL DAY GOALS
| GW38 GOALS PER GAME | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GAME) | GW38 CLEAN SHEETS | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GW) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | ? | 2.94 (after GW36) | ? | 4.67 (after GW36) |
| 2023/24 | 3.7 | 3.28 | 4 | 4.13 |
| 2022/23 | 3.3 | 2.85 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2021/22 | 3.9 | 2.82 | 2 | 5.58 |
| 2020/21 | 3.1 | 2.69 | 6 | 5.89 |
| 2019/20 | 3.3 | 2.72 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2018/19 | 3.6 | 2.82 | 5 | 5.45 |
| 2017/18 | 3.1 | 2.68 | 6 | 5.95 |
| 2016/17 | 3.7 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.63 |
| 2015/16 | 3.5 | 2.70 | 2 | 5.66 |
| 2014/15 | 2.9 | 2.57 | 7 | 5.89 |
| 2013/14 | 2.8 | 2.77 | 4 | 6.11 |
| 2012/13 | 3.6 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.26 |
| 2011/12 | 3.2 | 2.81 | 4 | 5.42 |
| 2010/11 | 3.2 | 2.80 | 5 | 5.03 |
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While acknowledging the small sample, there is seemingly some weight behind the theory. The final day of all 14 seasons contained more goals per game than that season’s average, with only 2013/14 being a close-run thing.
Each of the most recent nine campaigns has produced at least 30 goals on the final day, peaking at 2021/22’s 39.
It therefore follows that there is a lower-than-average number of clean sheets on the final day. On only three of the 14 final Gameweeks was the clean-sheet average exceeded.
Unlike last season, when a record 1,239 goals were scored, 2024/25 has not been quite as free-scoring. Nonetheless, we are on course to see more goals scored than each of the 13 campaigns prior to 2023/24.
It therefore follows that clean sheets are up on last year. There have been 168 shutouts after 36 Gameweeks (compared with 149 by the same stage last season), taking the goals conceded per game average up from 4.10 to 4.66. But this figure is down on the preceding seasons by a distance, demonstrating the growing trend of attacks increasingly getting the better of defences.
