Howe could Newcastle look under new manager Eddie?
Newcastle United announced the appointment of Eddie Howe as new head coach on Monday, signing a two-and-a-half year contract under the club’s new ownership.
It’s an appointment that has gathered a mixed reaction amongst supporters so far, with the 43-year-old seen as an intelligent student of the game but perhaps a step down from last week’s Unai Emery debacle, where a deal was seemingly agreed until the Villarreal boss pulled out of negotiations.
Long seen as one of English football’s most promising young managers, Howe took his time in picking the next move after an outstanding eight-year stint at Bournemouth. He rejected an approach from Celtic but clearly sees enough potential in this Tyneside project to end his 18-month rest.
However, Newcastle find themselves without a win or clean sheet from their first 11 league matches. Only two sides have ever escaped relegation from this position during a 38-game season – Blackburn 1996/97 and Derby 2000/01.
The Magpies are at home to out-of-form Brentford after this international break but need to re-learn the art of defending. Unfortunately, this isn’t something Howe’s Bournemouth were good at.
Whilst their rise through the leagues was remarkable and should be considered when it comes to comparing them with other Premier League sides, goals conceded did not improve over time.
Season one, in 2015/16, saw a freak event where Bournemouth had the fifth-best defence for shots conceded, yet conceded 67 goals and kept just seven clean sheets. The following four seasons were mostly ranked towards the bottom of the league.
This campaign, Newcastle are one of only two sides yet to keep a clean sheet. Only Burnley have conceded more shots, only Norwich have let in more goals and their expected goals conceded (xGC) of 21.57 is the worst.
Perhaps that rules out Javi Manquillo (£4.0m) and Matt Ritchie (£4.9m) as options, then. Further upfield, there are further reunions with ex-Bournemouth pair Callum Wilson (£7.3m) and Ryan Fraser (£5.3m), although things ended sourly with the latter.
When football returned from its three-month lockdown, the final nine matches of the 2019/20 season needed completing by late-July. Fraser had already decided to leave upon his June 30th contract expiry, before then refusing to extend for one month to help Bournemouth’s fight against relegation. He was banished, the Cherries failed to survive and an exhausted-looking Howe resigned.
It will be interesting to see what studious Howe has learnt during his sabbatical. He’s had time to recover physically and mentally, with an opportunity to look around and observe how other managers are doing things. Does he stick with Newcastle’s recent wing-back system or revert to his preferred four-at-the-back? And how does he use the bright spark of Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.8m)?
His new team are currently five points adrift of safety and have a nasty December fixture run of Leicester (a), Liverpool (a), Man City (H) and Man United (H). Howe is immediately thrust into must-win games at home to Brentford, Norwich and Burnley (with a trip to Arsenal in-between), so trust will be placed into Wilson to drive Newcastle to safety.
FPL forwards have had a poor couple of gameweeks, with only five returns of 8+ points compared to 24 from midfield and 19 from defenders. Main striker Wilson has been on the pitch for six Newcastle goals and scored four of them himself, having bagged 67 goals and 31 assists during his 187 matches under Howe previously.
Wilson has strong fixtures, a new manager bounce, guaranteed game time, penalty duties and is a strong differential option for FPL managers wanting to replace the likes of Michail Antonio (£8.2m), Ivan Toney (£6.7m) or Jamie Vardy (£10.8m).
The initial £1.0m price gap between him and Saint-Maximin is now down to £0.5m, so it is probably worth opting for Wilson over the Frenchman.
Despite their defensive woes, Newcastle are weakest in midfield and the only real Fantasy option is Joe Willock (£5.8m), should Howe unlock his goal scoring run from last spring. Perhaps Fraser, if he can remain fit and truly is on good terms with Howe.
Jamal Lewis (£4.3m) hasn’t started a league game since Gameweek 26 of last season. Steve Bruce then preferred Ritchie but Howe – who sold the Scotland international in 2016 – may see things differently.
Lastly, Martin Dubravka (£4.4m) has recovered from his foot injury and is ready to play for the first time this season. It is expected that he will displace Karl Darlow (£4.5m) in goal, in a move that should instantly improve their back line.
Howe and the Newcastle squad have two weeks to get to know each other. There are uncertainties throughout the squad but one certainty is that Callum Wilson will be hunting goals and is therefore a very good candidate for the FPL community.
