FPL: Isak v Watkins

Fantasy Premier League is edging closer and closer with each passing day and managers continue to work through the debates in their own squads. One of those debates, which we cover in this article with the help of the Fantasy Football Scout tools, is Isak v Watkins.

Isak v Watkins seems to be one of biggest challenges within the community. Both strikers were excellent for their clubs last season and with budget restricting managers in owning both, it could be crucial to pick out the best pick to start the season with.

Aston Villa v Newcastle

Comparing both sides initially could be a hugely significant factor when coming to our conclusion.

Aston Villa were fantastic last season and ended their 23/24 campaign solidifying fourth in the league. Newcastle however slumped out of the European slots into seventh place.

Whilst Aston Villa finished three spaces higher than Newcastle the latter dominated when it came to the attacking data and you can see that below:

Aston Villa 76 v 85 Newcastle – Goals scored
Aston Villa 515 v 551 Newcastle – Total attempts on goal
Aston Villa 365 v 395 Newcastle – Shots in the box
Aston Villa 98 v 134 Newcastle – Big chances total
Aston Villa 186 v 205 Newcastle -Shots on target

Expected Data

When it comes to the basics Newcastle dominate and that appears to be the case when diving into their expected data.

In fact, the Magpies edged Aston Villa for non-penalty expected goals (1.8), expected goals from open play (1.5), expected goals on target (2.1), minutes per excepted goals (48.2), and minutes per expected assist (85.4).

Starting Fixtures

Another huge factor when comparing either assets or teams is their starting schedule.

Below we can see the Fantasy Football fixture ticker has ordered the teams at the top with the easiest fixtures and the teams at the bottom with the toughest fixtures in the first five Gameweeks.

We can see that Newcastle sit third best on the ticker with fixtures against Southampton, Bournemouth, Tottenham, Wolves and Fulham.

Aston Villa sit five places lower than Newcastle, mostly due to their fixture against Arsenal.

Isak v Watkins

Using the Fantasy Football Scout Comparability tool we can see Ollie Watkins (£9m) has played nearly 1000 more minutes than Alexander Isak (£8.5m).

With that in mind it comes as no surprise that the former dominates some stats including starts, assists and fantasy assists as shown below.

What is interesting though is that Isak beats Watkins for goals scored.

Considering the fact that Watkins has played much more minutes than Isak it could be worth comparing their attacking data per 90 minutes:

Isak 0.83 v 0.53 Watkins – Goals scored
Isak 6.82 v 6.38 Watkins – FPL points
Isak 3.09 v 3.00 Watkins – Total attempts on goal
Isak 2.66 v 2.69 Watkins – Total shots in the box
Isak 1.59 v 0.92 Watkins – Big chances total
Isak 1.67 v 1.32 Watkins – Shots on target

We can see that Isak edges Watkins in most of the key attacking metrics per 90 minutes.

Additional Factors

Price could be important when deciding between both Isak and Watkins and the former comes in £0.5 cheaper than the latter.

Aston Villa have had some key departures during the summer with both Moussa Diaby and Douglas Luiz leaving. Their absence could dampen the Aston Villa attack as a whole and this is something we have to take into account.

Penalty duty is a big factor. There is no telling who will take the penalties for Aston Villa without Douglas Luiz. Where-as, Isak is Newcastle’s designated penalty taker.

Conclusion

Ollie Watkins was fantastic last season. As well as topping the forwards for points he proved to be one of the most consistent assets in the game.

However, Alexander Isak appears to have the edge. Not only does he play for a more attacking side statistically, have better starting fixtures, dominate most underlying attacking metrics per 90 minutes, but he also comes in cheaper and takes penalties.