FPL Fantasy Timber: Should we sell Forest’s Wood?

In form but with tricky upcoming fixtures, the more ruthless FPL managers could be tempted to sell Chris Wood (£6.6m).

When someone can’t see the bigger picture because they’re fixated on the details, an idiom says they can’t see the wood for the trees. Or the forest for the trees. Something like that.

In Fantasy terms, this translates to a thought that focusing solely on Nottingham Forest’s tough upcoming fixtures ignores the fact that both they and Wood are having a wonderful season. FPL’s second-best forward so far has fired them up to fifth place.

He’s just blanked for the first time in five outings, so why are the ruthless managers already looking to sell?

CLINICAL STATS

Five goals came in the previous four occasions, putting him in a position where only Erling Haaland (£15.2m) has netted more often and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) is the sole player to accrue more bonus points. This is over 11 Gameweeks, so a decent chunk of the season.

Furthermore, Wood is joint-fourth for big chances (11) and joint-third for shots on target (14), proving himself to be an FPL bargain. He’s risen in price six times.

However, underlying stats may lead to a conclusion that he’s having an unsustainable purple patch. 28 penalty area touches is low and 18 shots inside there ranks just 21st. His low number of attempts (21) is bettered by 25 others, also being one of the biggest expected goals (xG) overachievers (+3.49).

But it was a similar story last season, where ruthless Wood scored 14 goals but started just 20 matches. Forest simply play to the clinical forward’s strengths and he does his job.

TRICKY FIXTURES

Although not expected to take penalties, he did so in Gameweek 5 when both Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.3m) and James Ward-Prowse (£6.2m) were on the pitch. If he keeps spot kicks, perhaps he becomes even more fixture-proof.

That’s handy because Fantasy Football Scout’s Season Ticker believes it’s about to get difficult for the Tricky Trees.

They have the third-worst fixture run over the next half-dozen and the second-worst when extending the ticker to 10 Gameweeks. Of course, the Arsenal and Man City defences are having a tough time and shouldn’t be feared. The Ipswich match in-between even has potential for a differential Wood captaincy.

Then again, it’s the ‘lesser’ events where Forest have lost. While picking up a Liverpool away win and drawing at Chelsea and Brighton, home defeats came against Fulham and Newcastle.

Moreover, there’s a chance that team-mate Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.6m) will be handed a start during the chaotic December schedule. Admittedly, that’s looking unlikelier by the week.

ALTERNATIVE FORWARDS

What could swing the decision for managers is the multitude of other cheap forwards that are emerging. Matheus Cunha (£6.8m) has been bought by over 700,000 since Gameweek 9 and kicked off Wolves’ great fixtures with a haul versus Southampton.

On the south coast, Evanilson (£5.9m) has three goals in a row, as both Bournemouth and Brighton are also entering an attractive run. That brings Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) and Joao Pedro (£5.4m) into the equation.

In west London, we have Raul Jimenez (£5.8m) and Yoane Wissa (£6.1m). The latter has scored six times and assisted twice from just seven starts, giving him the league’s best minutes-per-goal rate of everyone beyond 120 minutes.

If a manager’s team is Haaland-less, it might be worth keeping Wood for one of three spots. But if it’s Haaland plus two others, perhaps the New Zealand international can make way. Stats and fixtures are poor, with plenty of forwards ready to step in.