Could Jesse Lingard be a good FPL pick at West Ham?

Lingard is a free agent

Monday’s rumour mill suggested that West Ham have made a move for Jesse Lingard. As of the 1st of July Lingard will be a free agent when his United contract expires.

It’s been a disappointing season for Lingard, starting just twice upon his return to Old Trafford. However, such is his productivity in east London, one of his two goals arrived against the Hammers.

The 2020/21 loan to West Ham

He was hoping for a new beginning at Man United following the fantastic half-season loan that fired the Hammers into Europe. Five double-digit hauls arrived in his first nine starts before a quieter end to the campaign.

Naturally, his FPL ownership relentlessly increased over this spell, with millions of purchases taking Lingard from £5.9m to £6.7m. Over these ten matches, the average was 8.9 points per outing.

Not only did Lingard rank top for attacking returns (13), he had the fifth-most goal attempts (30) and was only bettered by Harry Kane for shots on target (18).

However, his low expected goal involvement (xGI) total of 5.11 suggests overachievement in this period. No player came close to his +7.89 delta number, so was it just a purple patch for a newly-invigorated Lingard?

Looking at the location of these 18 shots on target, it doesn’t feel like a fluke. Starting on the left flank, he regularly got into the box to test the goalkeeper, rather than taking speculative long-range attempts.

Returns dried up over the final matches, likely because opposition defences identified him as the key player to focus on. He was outdone by Pablo Fornals and Tomas Soucek for most attacking stats, with an xGI lower than Declan Rice and Aaron Cresswell.

But with Jarrod Bowen now on the other flank, it will make opponents panic. Last time, the former Hull man’s game time was affected by Lingard’s arrival and they only started nine of 16 matches together.

That won’t happen anymore, with Bowen their star man and coming off the back of a breakout season. His 206 FPL points of 2021/22 ranked fourth overall thanks to 12 goals and a league-high 17 assists.

Would Lingard be a good FPL option?

If the deal happens, there will be new circumstances in the decision-making process for FPL managers. Unlike last time, Lingard arrives at a West Ham playing European football. Therefore he could be prone to an occasional rotation with Said Benrahma or Nikola Vlasic.

The Bowen factor should also be considered. Depending on pricing, will Bowen still be the go-to Hammers asset or will he be too expensive, enabling Lingard to be a cheaper alternative?

Should Lingard come in at £6.5m, there is an appealing fixture run between Gameweeks 7 and 13. Before then, a decent three matches are disappointingly surrounded by facing three of last season’s top four. At least that gives enough time to assess West Ham’s credentials and rotation tendencies.

A favourite of David Moyes, consistent Premier League minutes would suddenly put Lingard right back onto the FPL radar.