FPL first draft: Marc Jobling’s team reveal

Fantasy Football Scout’s Marc Jobling gives insightful thoughts on various players included in his FPL first draft.

Firstly, quite a few players in the team below have huge asterisks by their names (in my head). If, for example, Andre Onana gets added to FPL as a £5.0m goalkeeper, I’d find that having him instead of Luke Shaw (£5.5m) is the least painful way to raise money in defence. Gabriel (£5.0m) would then step back in – the defender with last season’s highest expected goals (xG) tally.

Also, I generally like my Gameweek 1 teams to have a longer-term defence. This allows transfers to be used further upfield, where hopefully a range of price points are covered.

Due to the lack of viable £4.5m midfielders in this year’s game, I think 3-5-2 is the way forward. But even if one emerged, I’m too emotionally attached to it now – whittling these great options down to five is tough enough!

FPL first draft: Defence

Coverage of Man United, Arsenal and Brighton’s back lines is what I want. Not the stresses of ‘Pep Roulette’ at Man City, nor the nasty early Newcastle fixtures.

Erik ten Hag’s side kept the most clean sheets of last season (17), conceding just ten times at home. It’s therefore optimistic to assume Onana will come in at £5.0m. Bonus points magnet Shaw is the other candidate.

A team with no Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) could simply have the Shaw, Gabriel and Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) trio without thought, alongside a £4.5m goalkeeper.

However, I would fear being without the Liverpool man, even if I don’t approve of his price rise. It’s a poor fixture run for a defence that conceded the third-most big chances last time. On the other hand, his attacking potential has somehow reached a new level now that he’s been told to invert.

As a consequence, money needs squeezing wherever possible. Pursuing a longer-term defence would not have two of £4.0m, it’d have a £4.5m like Sven Botman, Matty Cash or Rico Henry.

And what about Reece James (£5.5m)? In FPL, we don’t see eye to eye.

FPL first draft: Attack

Another squeeze overlooks the popular Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) for Brighton team-mate Julio Enciso (£5.5m). I’m fine without Mitoma – who I was disappointed with over the spring matches – but there’s currently no obvious £5.5m midfielder. Enciso is a rotation risk, for instance.

I’m not traditionally an FPL fan of Bruno Fernandes but his drop to £8.5m is a real shock. I find it hard to ignore, considering he created the league’s most chances. He’s also very downgradeable to Raheem Sterling (£7.0m), James Maddison (£7.5m) or Phil Foden (£7.5m) if needed.

Meanwhile, despite the former’s big price rise, I’m in very little doubt over Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) or Bukayo Saka (£8.5m). Over at Fantasy Football Scout, we’ve compared the Arsenal midfielders’ underlying 2022/23 stats. When they’re now so closely priced, I prefer Saka’s nailed-on minutes and penalties.

Mo Salah (£12.5m) or No Salah? My philosophy is that, between him and Alexander-Arnold, there has to be a sacrifice regardless. So opt for the one that has more spectacular alternatives. This midfield – with Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m) there too – has five strong individuals and that’s without Sterling or Son Heung-min (£9.0m) involved.

Starting with Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) up front will repeat last season for me. I’m just not yet keen on Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m) and don’t trust Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) to stay fit.

Conclusion

Feeling secure with a 3-5-2 squad, my team will ultimately hinge on whether to have Alexander-Arnold. Without him, Enciso can be upgraded and I can have a better fourth defender that allows future planning.

There’s just a feeling that we’ll get some sort of big transfer or big injury that throws all FPL first draft plans into the air. I look forward to the chaos.