Should we avoid Newcastle during their tough opening FPL fixtures?
Last season’s fourth-placed and impressive Newcastle FPL assets begin with four difficult matches to the 2023/24 campaign.
The Magpies’ transformation under Eddie Howe has been remarkable, finishing in the top four to secure Champions League football for the first time since 2003. Yet the Thursday unveiling of 2023/24’s fixture list has handed them a tough start.
FPL managers will already be braced for their price rises, so are their players to be avoided completely until things ease up?
NEWCASTLE FPL FIXTURES
Using our initial reaction to the fixtures and Fantasy Football Scout’s already-updated Season Ticker, it’s believed that Newcastle have the hardest first four Gameweeks of all 20 teams.
They begin against an Aston Villa side that were fifth-best between Unai Emery’s early November arrival and the end, conceding only eight times in their final 15 outings. Such a run included Newcastle’s heaviest defeat of the season, 3-0 at Villa Park.
Then, it’s a trip to champions Man City and a meeting with the only team to beat them on both occasions – Liverpool. To make things worse, it’s followed by Brighton away.
The head-to-head table between last season’s top six has the Magpies on ten points.
| Position | Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 20 | +13 |
| 2 | Brighton | 15 | +1 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 14 | +3 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 14 | -4 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 10 | -2 |
| 6 | Man United | 10 | -11 |
IS TRIPPIER FIXTURE-PROOF?
So whilst the team tends to reach its limit versus the elite, it’s not the same for Kieran Trippier. The attacking right-back brought FPL returns in 17 of his first 20 games and, although Newcastle’s clean sheet machine malfunctioned after Gameweek 21, he still ended far in front as the game’s highest-scoring defender.
Three of Trippier’s five double-digit hauls came against Man United, Brighton and Aston Villa, showing he can star against anyone. Furthermore, he dominated underlying stats, being the number one player across all positions for crosses (393), successful crosses (135) and corners (216), with his 83 successful corners over twice as good as second place. Only attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes created more chances than his 110.
It’s little wonder that this points magnet was embedded in the FPL template for a long time, although a large expected price rise may see lower ownership than his 7.79 million peak.
OTHER DEFENSIVE OPTIONS
Four of FPL’s top nine defenders came from Newcastle, with Nick Pope amongst the best goalkeepers. Promoting their selection might be trickier, with much less attacking potential compared to Trippier.
Dan Burn, Sven Botman and Fabian Schar only shared two goals, despite the latter achieving more attempts (56), big chances (9) and shots on target (14) than all other defenders. Schar massively underachieved his 4.95 expected goals (xG) tally and buying another centre-back is predicted to be one of Howe’s summer priorities.
If all three have a price of at least £5.0m, it’s tough to justify selecting their tough fixtures and poor goal involvement.
PREDICTING THE NEWCASTLE FPL ATTACK
Meanwhile, there was an average of 1.50 goals scored past these four teams over eight matches. However, their three main attacking names each have a problem on top of these difficult opponents.
Miguel Almiron‘s autumn purple patch preceded late-season rotation with Jacob Murphy. The Magpies are expected to sign another name for that right flank.
As for Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak, they were taking turns to start up until Gameweek 35. Wilson is more likely to sit on the bench but, when both begin, Isak’s output feels severely restricted when moved to the left.
Goals were flowing in the final third of last season but that was without European competition. Howe will now cope with more matches by adding more squad depth and therefore more uncertainty.
At both ends of the pitch, FPL managers may feel it’s best to wait and see.
