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FINAL THOUGHT - wk #16                                                          By: Jay Charles Johnson 
My thoughts on where players stand following each weekends final whistle... 

The last week in most Fantasy leagues ended on a rather odd note. There was more discussion and controversy about the Colts players who didn’t play an entire game, than there was about those who finished their matchup in other contests.

 

Certainly we were all given fair warning by the Colts organization that this scenario might unfold - but it still didn’t sit very well with many fans.  In particular, it raised the ire of those who attended the game in Indianapolis, who went so far as to boo their 14-0 home team (which has got to be unprecedented).

 

On to this week’s player notes, that does not include those involved in the Monday night contest of the Bears hosting the Vikings.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Peyton Manning

 

It was not so much that Peyton Manning was pulled from the game - it was the way it was done.  Conventional wisdom was that if he and the other starters were to be rested, they would play just one series and leave (as had been done in prior years).  Or, in the alternative, they would leave when the game was comfortably in hand – let’s say by 21-28 points at halftime or with a 2 TD lead in the fourth quarter.

 

Instead, Manning left with the team ahead only by a 15-10 margin with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter.  The game was turned over to rookie Curtis Painter, who had never taken a regular season snap in the NFL (and played like it).  The Colts went on to lose to the Jets 29-15.

 

This decision prevented the Colts from making history by possibly being the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 in the regular season and win the Super Bowl.  No matter how this ultimately plays out, there will always be the “What if Peyton had played the entire game?” debate that will never be answered.

 

I can understand the rationale to pull Manning and others to avoid the risk of injury.  But, if that is the case, why have them play at all?  Or if you do have them play, why not just a token series and then have them exit – why leave them in for 40 minutes?

 

Meanwhile, Manning’s Fantasy owners who did start him didn’t fair that well.  His numbers for the day were just 14 of 21 for 182 yards and no TDs.

 

Coach Jim Caldwell and team president Bill Polian made a pragmatic decision that they don’t think will have any negative consequences.  They may be right, but if this is how they are trying to motivate the Colts players to get up for the playoffs, they seem to be going about it in the wrong way, as there were a lot of unhappy faces on the sideline.  The coming weeks will tell us if this indeed was the smart move or not.

 

Tom Brady

 

Those who owned Brady and survived his prior two substandard weeks to make their Fantasy championship were richly rewarded, as the Patriots made it a statement game against the Jaguars with a dominating 35-7 win.  Brady passed for 267 yards, 4 TDs and no INTs.  New England seems to have bounced back to top form as we approach the playoffs. 

 

Drew Brees

 

It was not a particularly good day for Brees and the Saints – either from a real world or Fantasy perspective.  Although they had already clinched a playoff birth, they were still going for the top seed in their conference.  But that was not enough, as the team dropped its second game in a row, this time being upset by Tampa Bay 20-17.

 

Brees numbers were OK, throwing for 258 yards and 1 TD.  However the team’s offense has looked a big sluggish in recent weeks and they will need to get their mojo back in the season finale facing a surging Carolina team.  If they go into the playoffs on the heels on three straight losses, they will likely be one-and-done.

 

Donovan McNabb

 

If you believe in trends, look at how Donovan McNabb has progressed in recent weeks:

 

Week 13 @ ATL –  238 yards, 1 TD

Week 14 @ NYG – 275 yards, 2 TD

Week 15  v. SFO  – 306 yards, 1 TD

Week 16  v. DEN – 322 yards, 3 TD

 

The passing game certainly seems to be coming together late in the season.  The finale is on the road against the Cowboys.  In their last matchup, the Eagles lost 16-20 and McNabb was held to just 227 yards and 1 TD.  However with the NFC division title on the line, I expect this to be a high scoring game, so get out the popcorn.

 

Matt Moore

 

With his second strong performance in two weeks, Matt Moore directed the Panthers to a 41-9 stunner over the Giants.  He completed 15 of 20 passes for 171 yards and 3 TDs. 

 

Moore now appears to have the inside track on being the starting QB for the Panthers next year.  Delhomme may have to return with his $12 million guaranteed contract, but if Moore continues to play this well he will keep Jake on the bench, or possibly even cause him to be released from the team.

 

Chad Henne

 

Chad Henne again put up some solid stats, throwing for 322 yards and a TD in the 27-20 loss to the Texans.  The numbers are a little misleading as the team was playing from behind for most of the game, which caused him to throw for a career high 55 times.

 

Still, he has been playing well in the last four weeks, averaging about 300 yards and 1 TD per game.  His solid and consistent performances seems have been overlooked by most observers.  All the better for those of us who have been paying attention, as this means he should be an excellent backup QB that can be had pretty cheaply in drafts next year.

 

Carson Palmer

 

As with most of his games this year, Carson Palmer’s passing yardage was nothing to write home about, completing only 17 of 25 for 139 yards.  He did make up for it somewhat with 2 TDs throws, the second one sealing the 17-10 win for the Bengals, with a 6 yard strike to Chad Ochocinco with 2:03 remaining. 

 

Palmer is capable of putting up better Fantasy numbers.  But expectations of that must be tempered, for as long as Cincinnati continues to win with a play selection that emphasizes the run, there will be no need to utilize the full extent of his passing abilities.  I expect him to continue with these generally substandard numbers next year, sprinkled with an occasional 300+ yard game.

 

Running Backs


Jonathan Stewart

 

Luck has a lot to do with winning Fantasy championships, and Jonathan Stewart owners were thanking their lucky starts that not only DeAngelo Williams was inactive, but that the Panthers also happened to face a listless Giants team.

 

Stewart frolicked in the 41-9 shellacking at the Meadowlands and rumbled for 206 yards and 1 TD.  The time to acquire him cheaply in Dynasty leagues has now passed.

 

Jerome Harrison

 

It was another big day for Harrison.  After setting a franchise rushing record last week, he followed that up with 39 carries for 148 yards and a TD, as the Browns beat the Raiders 23-9. 

 

Harrison’s recent strong showing seems to entrench him as the leading candidate to be the #1 RB for the Browns next year.  Cleveland has no many other areas of concern for their team that they may not need to address the RB position in the early rounds of next year’s draft.

 

Chris Johnson

 

Chris Johnson had another 142 yards and a TD Friday, bringing his yearly total to 1,872 yards.  This puts him within striking distance of the 2,000 yard mark for the season finale at Seattle.  He looks to finish the year as the top scorer in most Fantasy leagues and should be the # 1 RB chosen in all drafts next year, if not the top pick taken overall. 

 

Jamal Charles

 

Charles had 24 carries for 102 yards, marking his third consecutive 100 yard game for this season.  Every week it seems more likely that he will be the Chiefs’ starting RB next year.  Does anybody in Kansas City miss Larry Johnson now?

 

Frank Gore

 

For a player who that was not that highly regarded in Fantasy circles, Frank Gore has had an outstanding season on a 49er’s team that quite often has failed to fully utilize his talents.  With 71 yards rushing yesterday (including a TD) he topped the 1,000 yard mark for the fourth straight year.  He also had 4 catches for 81 yards.

 

All indications are that the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, and that San Francisco will have a competitive offense next year.  If they continue to improve they will probably make the 2010 playoffs.  Consequently, we should expect to see similar if not better numbers from Gore next year.

 

Cedric Benson

 

While I do believe Vince Young will be named comeback player of the year, honorable mention will have to go to Cedric Benson.  Benson was labeled a bust by most observers after being cut by the Bears following his brushes with the law and problems dealing with teammates.  However he has resurrected his career in Cincinnati.

 

Benson had another fine day, with 29 carries for 133 yards against the Chiefs.  This brought his year-to-date totals to 301 carries for 1251 yards and 6 TDs.  What makes this even more impressive is he had a touch schedule, with having to face both the Steelers and the Ravens twice. 

 

I would guess he will be undervalued again in drafts next year as most people may think this was a fluke and that he can’t do it twice.  But after this season, I wouldn’t bet against him equaling those numbers, in fact, I think he should exceed them.

 

Arian Foster

 

Foster was benched last week after fumbling on his first carry.  He was given a second chance yesterday, and redeemed himself by not only holding on to the ball, but also rumbling for 97 yards and 1 TD on 19 carries.

 

I have no idea how the RB situation in Houston is going to shake out next season.  Along with Foster, we have Slaton, Moats and Chris Brown all potentially in the mix.  At this point, this screams of some sort of RBBC, but Foster could emerge from this group and find himself the # 1 RB for the Texans.

 

Steven Jackson

 

Despite being expected to play, Steven Jackson was a late scratch due to his back problems.  Unfortunately, this was not an early game and when most of the Jackson owners got the news that he was not playing, it was too late to make a substitution, as the other RBs on their roster had already played.  This is an unfair aspect of Fantasy Football that we all have to live with, and I am at a loss to suggest how it can be changed.

 

Wide Receivers

 

 Wes Welker

 

Although Randy Moss got most of the attention with his 3 TD catches, Welker was one moving the chains and had 13 catches for 138 yards.  This brought his total to the season to 133 receptions, breaking his own club record mark of 112 in 2007.

 

What makes his accomplishment even more remarkable is that he missed two games due to injury. With one regular season game left, and he is on pace for 131 receptions, which would rank second in NFL history to Marvin Harrison’s 143. 

 

I think that Welker has disproved the notion that the best time to sell a player in Dynasty leagues is following a career year, particularly a receiver who is under 30 years of age.  No one can say they can’t do it again, or in Welker’s case, best those figures a year or two down the line.

 

Roddy White

 

Roddy White finished the Fantasy season on a high note with 8 catches for 139 yards and 2 TDs against the third ranked pass defense in the NFL.  Keep him in mind for drafts next year as the general perception is that he underachieved and, as such, should be undervalued in 2010.

 

Brandon Marshall

 

Although he was targeted a team high 13 times, all Brandon Marshall had to show for the day was a disappointing 8 catches for 39 yards.  Oddly, Jabar Gaffney (of all people) was the Broncos leading receiver with 7 receptions for 69 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Steve Smith – Carolina

 

Steve Smith has got to be the toughest player in football.  He got slammed by Giants safety Michael Johnson making a catch near the goal line, breaking his left forearm in the process.  Somehow, he still held on to the ball and scored a TD.  Smith is truly amazing.

 

Anquan Boldin

 

Once again Boldin demonstrated that he is one of the better possession receivers in the game with 8 catches for 166 yards.  This brought his year-to-date total to 81 receptions for 986 yards and 4 TDs, despite the fact that he missed two games and was not close to 100% healthy in several others. 

 

If the Cardinals are smart they will finally reward him by reworking his contract and pay him similarly to what they are paying Larry Fitzgerald (as Boldin has been demanding over the last two seasons).

 

Although I don’t see that happening - and I suspect that the Arizona organization will point to his injury history and say “You haven’t demonstrated you can stay healthy for an entire year.”  As a result, he will probably go elsewhere, with team management not appreciating his contribution to the offense until after he is gone.

 

Austin Collie

 

Woof! With most of other high profile WRs of the Colts either injured or being rested, Collie was the top receiver for the team with 6 catches for 94 yards.

 

It is interesting to note that is Collie leads the pack among rookie WRs in two categories - topping the freshman field with 59 receptions and 7 TDs going into the Monday night game.  Not bad for a fourth round pick who was not taken in any rookie Fantasy draft before about the 2.05 selection.

 

Tight Ends

 

Zack Miller – Raiders

 

After missing a couple of contests due to a concussion, Miller returned in top form, leading all Raiders receivers with 9 catches for 110 yards.  One can only wonder how much better a season he would have had if someone else besides Jamarcus Russell had been the QB for all those games.

 

Kellen Winslow

 

With his 4 catches for 76 yards yesterday, Kellen Winslow set the Tampa Bay franchise record for most receiving yards for a TE with 828 for the season.  As far as Fantasy is concerned, he is currently ranked # 6 among TEs going into the Monday night game.

 

Winslow underscores something I have said over the years, but will repeat once again – the best friend of a rookie QB is usually his TE.  As expected, teams have been daring Josh Freeman to beat them with the pass.  That has resulted in numerous interceptions, but it also opened up things for Winslow, who has reaped the rewards.

 

Winslow has bad knees, so how many playing years he has left is open to speculation.  Nevertheless, Josh Freeman will still be in the learning curve in 2010, so we can count on at least one more solid year of TE production from Winslow.

 

Closing Thoughts

 

And so ends the Fantasy season for most of us.  This will be my last weekly column, however in the next month I will look at the surprises and disappointments of 2009.  After that, I will start a series of articles to help prepare those in Dynasty leagues for the 2010 startup drafts, followed by my rankings which should appear sometime in April.

 

I hope that you all have enjoyed reading this column as much as I have enjoyed writing it.

 

I can be reached at: Jaycharles.Johnson@gmail.com